Background

Met Office winter forecasting methods are based primarily on the influence
of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on the European winter climate.
Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so the forecast
for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.

A statistical method and a number of global forecasting models are used to
provide information on the outlook for Winter 2006/7.

El Niño conditions - which have widespread weather impacts across the
globe - are now becoming established in the Pacific Ocean. There is evidence
that El Niño has an effect on European winter climate and this will continue
to be monitored.

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with
approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than
average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured
for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there
is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in
the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold
snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central
and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance
of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe
and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In
the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry
weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.

More about the forecast for Europe
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._7/europe.html

More about the forecast for UK
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...2006_7/uk.html

Forecast uncertainties

The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild winter,
and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook may
continue as emerging signals become established. Further developments in the
situation are therefore expected, as evolution of ocean temperatures in the
North Atlantic takes place.

Updates and reviews of the forecast

It is expected that updates to the forecast will be issued at the beginning
of November (10 a.m. on 1 November), early December and January. A monthly
appraisal of the winter will start in early January 2007. Winter, in this
context, is defined as the months of Dec, Jan and Feb, although it is
recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this period, especially in
northern Britain

"Rupert (W.Yorkshire)" wrote in message
...
Background

Met Office winter forecasting methods are based primarily on the influence
of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on the European winter climate.
Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so the
forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.

A statistical method and a number of global forecasting models are used to
provide information on the outlook for Winter 2006/7.

El Niño conditions - which have widespread weather impacts across the
globe - are now becoming established in the Pacific Ocean. There is
evidence that El Niño has an effect on European winter climate and this
will continue to be monitored.

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced
with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer
than average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured
for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season,
there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an
increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold
snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central
and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even
chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe
and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In
the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of
dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of
2006.

More about the forecast for Europe
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._7/europe.html

More about the forecast for UK
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...2006_7/uk.html

Forecast uncertainties

The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild
winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook
may continue as emerging signals become established. Further developments
in the situation are therefore expected, as evolution of ocean
temperatures in the North Atlantic takes place.

Updates and reviews of the forecast

It is expected that updates to the forecast will be issued at the
beginning of November (10 a.m. on 1 November), early December and January.
A monthly appraisal of the winter will start in early January 2007.
Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of Dec, Jan and Feb,
although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this
period, especially in northern Britain


In other words, 'We don't know. Your best bet is to look out of the window
for an up to date report in your area' !!!!

Good for a laugh though :-))

Mike
In the Sunny and Cloudy with no rain but looks as if it might Isle of Wight
Ask me tomorrow for a more accurate report on today's weather

"Mike" wrote in message
...

"Rupert (W.Yorkshire)" wrote in message
...
Background

Met Office winter forecasting methods are based primarily on the
influence of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on the European winter
climate. Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so
the forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a
whole.

A statistical method and a number of global forecasting models are used
to provide information on the outlook for Winter 2006/7.

El Niño conditions - which have widespread weather impacts across the
globe - are now becoming established in the Pacific Ocean. There is
evidence that El Niño has an effect on European winter climate and this
will continue to be monitored.

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced
with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer
than average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured
for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season,
there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an
increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold
snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central
and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even
chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe
and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested.
In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period
of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the
summer of 2006.

More about the forecast for Europe
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._7/europe.html

More about the forecast for UK
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...2006_7/uk.html

Forecast uncertainties

The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild
winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter
outlook may continue as emerging signals become established. Further
developments in the situation are therefore expected, as evolution of
ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic takes place.

Updates and reviews of the forecast

It is expected that updates to the forecast will be issued at the
beginning of November (10 a.m. on 1 November), early December and
January. A monthly appraisal of the winter will start in early January
2007. Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of Dec, Jan and
Feb, although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this
period, especially in northern Britain


In other words, 'We don't know. Your best bet is to look out of the window
for an up to date report in your area' !!!!

Good for a laugh though :-))

Mike
In the Sunny and Cloudy with no rain but looks as if it might Isle of
Wight
Ask me tomorrow for a more accurate report on today's weather
The actual post was stolen from UKOasis forum --there are a few humorous
replies
http://www.ukoasis.co.uk/viewtopic.p...b44fd a42e5c4

In reply to Mike ) who wrote this in
, I, Marvo, say :

[snip]

In other words, 'We don't know. Your best bet is to look out of the
window for an up to date report in your area' !!!!

I looked on the BBC weather site on Friday for an update, as I was cruising
at the weekend. I decided against taking their advice when I noticed that
today, according to the BBC, was Thursday. And the weather forecast turned
out to be complete fiction, too.

The Times is usually worse, however. Looking out of the window seems to be
the best science.

Rupert (W.Yorkshire) wrote:
"Mike" wrote in message
...
"Rupert (W.Yorkshire)" wrote in message
...
Background

Met Office winter forecasting methods are based primarily on the
influence of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on the European winter
climate. Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so
the forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a
whole.

A statistical method and a number of global forecasting models are used
to provide information on the outlook for Winter 2006/7.

El Niño conditions - which have widespread weather impacts across the
globe - are now becoming established in the Pacific Ocean. There is
evidence that El Niño has an effect on European winter climate and this
will continue to be monitored.

Forecast for Winter 2006/7

Temperature

Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced
with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer
than average.

For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured
for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season,
there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an
increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold
snaps and snowfalls.

Precipitation

For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central
and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even
chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.

Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe
and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested.
In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period
of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the
summer of 2006.

More about the forecast for Europe
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._7/europe.html

More about the forecast for UK
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...2006_7/uk.html

Forecast uncertainties

The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild
winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter
outlook may continue as emerging signals become established. Further
developments in the situation are therefore expected, as evolution of
ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic takes place.

Updates and reviews of the forecast

It is expected that updates to the forecast will be issued at the
beginning of November (10 a.m. on 1 November), early December and
January. A monthly appraisal of the winter will start in early January
2007. Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of Dec, Jan and
Feb, although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this
period, especially in northern Britain

In other words, 'We don't know. Your best bet is to look out of the window
for an up to date report in your area' !!!!

Good for a laugh though :-))

Mike
In the Sunny and Cloudy with no rain but looks as if it might Isle of
Wight
Ask me tomorrow for a more accurate report on today's weather
The actual post was stolen from UKOasis forum --there are a few humorous
replies
http://www.ukoasis.co.uk/viewtopic.p...b44fd a42e5c4


this is the most accurate weather forecast I have heard from the Met Office:
It may rain at times in places.

In reply to Broadback ) who wrote this in
, I, Marvo, say :

this is the most accurate weather forecast I have heard from the Met
Office: It may rain at times in places.

Weather forecasters, like doctors and solicitors, are a waste of space IMHO.

They can be as wrong as they like and get away with it. Someone suffers in
any event.

In my 'umble job, if I am wrong I will not be in my job any more, and that
is right and fair.

If I am not sure, I do nothing apart from to say I'm not sure and find out
more until I am sure then do the job.

I bet someone will argue, because they do :-)

I fancy an argument today, but not a serious one, I'm too tired.

On 28/9/06 14:28, in article , "Uncle Marvo"
wrote:

In reply to Broadback ) who wrote this in
, I, Marvo, say :

this is the most accurate weather forecast I have heard from the Met
Office: It may rain at times in places.

Weather forecasters, like doctors and solicitors, are a waste of space IMHO.

They can be as wrong as they like and get away with it. Someone suffers in
any event.

In my 'umble job, if I am wrong I will not be in my job any more, and that
is right and fair.

If I am not sure, I do nothing apart from to say I'm not sure and find out
more until I am sure then do the job.

I bet someone will argue, because they do :-)

I fancy an argument today, but not a serious one, I'm too tired.

To be fair, forecasting is a matter of interpretation as well as scientific
information, so it moves more into the 'art of', IMO. We consistently read
of how the west country is shrouded with rain and fog as we look out at a
blazing hot day and it makes us as mad as anyone else, I assure you. It
reminds me of the story of an earlier Lord Home who looked at the barometer
stuck firmly on 'Fair' and opened the window, chucking it out into the
hurtling rain saying "See for yourself you bloody thing"!
I do hope nobody is thinking that matters have deteriorated since the Met
office moved to Exeter! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
I happen to know we have a past weather forecaster who posts here sometimes
so let's be nice..... ;-)
--
Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.co.uk
South Devon
http://www.discoverdartmoor.co.uk/

In reply to Sacha ) who wrote this in
, I, Marvo, say :

On 28/9/06 14:28, in article , "Uncle
Marvo" wrote:

In reply to Broadback ) who wrote this in
, I, Marvo, say :

this is the most accurate weather forecast I have heard from the Met
Office: It may rain at times in places.

Weather forecasters, like doctors and solicitors, are a waste of
space IMHO.

They can be as wrong as they like and get away with it. Someone
suffers in any event.

In my 'umble job, if I am wrong I will not be in my job any more,
and that is right and fair.

If I am not sure, I do nothing apart from to say I'm not sure and
find out more until I am sure then do the job.

I bet someone will argue, because they do :-)

I fancy an argument today, but not a serious one, I'm too tired.

To be fair, forecasting is a matter of interpretation as well as
scientific information, so it moves more into the 'art of', IMO. We
consistently read of how the west country is shrouded with rain and
fog as we look out at a blazing hot day and it makes us as mad as
anyone else, I assure you. It reminds me of the story of an earlier
Lord Home who looked at the barometer stuck firmly on 'Fair' and
opened the window, chucking it out into the hurtling rain saying "See
for yourself you bloody thing"!
I do hope nobody is thinking that matters have deteriorated since the
Met office moved to Exeter! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
I happen to know we have a past weather forecaster who posts here
sometimes so let's be nice..... ;-)

I have a fir cone ... it's more right than wrong.

"Uncle Marvo" wrote in message
...
In reply to Sacha ) who wrote this in
, I, Marvo, say :

On 28/9/06 14:28, in article , "Uncle
Marvo" wrote:

In reply to Broadback ) who wrote this in
, I, Marvo, say :

this is the most accurate weather forecast I have heard from the Met
Office: It may rain at times in places.

Weather forecasters, like doctors and solicitors, are a waste of
space IMHO.

They can be as wrong as they like and get away with it. Someone
suffers in any event.

In my 'umble job, if I am wrong I will not be in my job any more,
and that is right and fair.

If I am not sure, I do nothing apart from to say I'm not sure and
find out more until I am sure then do the job.

I bet someone will argue, because they do :-)

I fancy an argument today, but not a serious one, I'm too tired.

To be fair, forecasting is a matter of interpretation as well as
scientific information, so it moves more into the 'art of', IMO. We
consistently read of how the west country is shrouded with rain and
fog as we look out at a blazing hot day and it makes us as mad as
anyone else, I assure you. It reminds me of the story of an earlier
Lord Home who looked at the barometer stuck firmly on 'Fair' and
opened the window, chucking it out into the hurtling rain saying "See
for yourself you bloody thing"!
I do hope nobody is thinking that matters have deteriorated since the
Met office moved to Exeter! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
I happen to know we have a past weather forecaster who posts here
sometimes so let's be nice..... ;-)

I have a fir cone ... it's more right than wrong.


And I have a broken barometer which is stuck on "Change". It is deadly
accurate many times each year.

"Rupert (W.Yorkshire)" wrote in message
...


And I have a broken barometer which is stuck on "Change". It is deadly
accurate many times each year.


Like a clock I have which is broken. Right twice in 24 hours, but another
which is slow is NEVER right ;-))

Mike

"Mike" wrote in message
...

"Rupert (W.Yorkshire)" wrote in message
...


And I have a broken barometer which is stuck on "Change". It is deadly
accurate many times each year.


Like a clock I have which is broken. Right twice in 24 hours, but another
which is slow is NEVER right ;-))

Mike


Never say Never. That clock will be accurate (briefly) eventually.