I have a relative who has spent nearly a year in rural tajikistan,
living with local farmers.

I have been given permission to quote this extract from an email they
sent recently. It's for general interest.

===================

The family we stayed with has a hectare of
rented land sown to wheat but is only yielding
about 0.6 tonnes/ha, which is just enough to
feed their family of six children for 4 months.
The rest must come from the sale of a couple of
cows. But the farmer says: "the land is tired
and each year it is producing less and less."
In living memory it has never had anything but
wheat grown on it.

Then take the firewood situation. In order to
have enough firewood in the 3 months of winter
(when electricity is only supplied 4 hours a
day) to heat and cook, he must travel 10 km on
his donkey every day for 1 month out to an area
where firewood is rapidly being depleted.

He also rents a few rows in the apple orchard
but the trees are over 50 years old so they are
no longer producing what they once did, and
besides they are so tall and un-pruned that
much of the fruit cannot be harvested.

He also had a hectare of land that he once grew
chickpeas on. Sadly this last year mud and
rocks resembling a big alluvial fan came down
from the mountain and completely buried his
field.

They are just scraping by. Health-wise the
family had obvious nutritional deficiencies.
The wife had goitre (this country is completely
devoid of iodine in its soils) and iron
deficiency and no doubt many more.

The hard thing to realise is they are in a catch twenty-two
situation. They only have just enough to live on now. But
what about next year and the one after that and the one
after that - when their wheat yields fall even more, when
they have to go 15km instead of 10 every day for wood, when
the old apple trees give up the ghost and haven’t been
replaced.

Sustainable????


--
Oz
This post is worth absolutely nothing and is probably fallacious.
Note: soon (maybe already) only posts via despammed.com will be accepted.

"sw" wrote in message
...
Oz wrote:

The hard thing to realise is they are in a catch twenty-two
situation. They only have just enough to live on now. But
what about next year and the one after that and the one
after that - when their wheat yields fall even more, when
they have to go 15km instead of 10 every day for wood, when
the old apple trees give up the ghost and havenâ?Tt been
replaced.

Sustainable????

Clearly not.

it certainly looks grim. The sensible thing to do in that sort of area is
for them to diversify out of food production, get jobs where their labour
will undercut European wage rates and buy food in.
Even a part time job that paid enough to let them get a proper diet would
help break the downward spiral.

Jim Webster


regards
sarah


--
Waist deep, neck deep
We'll be drowning before too long
We're neck deep in the Big Muddy
And the damned fools keep yelling to push on

"Jim Webster" wrote in message
...

"sw" wrote in message
...
Oz wrote:

The hard thing to realise is they are in a catch twenty-two
situation. They only have just enough to live on now. But
what about next year and the one after that and the one
after that - when their wheat yields fall even more, when
they have to go 15km instead of 10 every day for wood, when
the old apple trees give up the ghost and havenâ?Tt been
replaced.

Sustainable????

Clearly not.

it certainly looks grim. The sensible thing to do in that sort of area is
for them to diversify out of food production, get jobs where their labour
will undercut European wage rates and buy food in.
Even a part time job that paid enough to let them get a proper diet would
help break the downward spiral.

Leaving his family behind or starving in slums near the city. Being poor in
a rural setting is bad it is worse in an urban one.

Gordon

Jim Webster writes

it certainly looks grim. The sensible thing to do in that sort of area is
for them to diversify out of food production,

That's what they are trying. They have borrowed to buy beads to make
necklaces. The whole thing sounds like a classical pyramid sell and if
it is they will have big debts, a pile of unsaleable necklaces, and
borrowings to boot.

get jobs where their labour
will undercut European wage rates and buy food in.

Unskilled, uneducated and isolated. Hmmm....

Even a part time job that paid enough to let them get a proper diet would
help break the downward spiral.

There are no jobs. There is little infrastructure.

It's (I think) the third poorest country in the world.

--
Oz
This post is worth absolutely nothing and is probably fallacious.
Note: soon (maybe already) only posts via despammed.com will be accepted.

"Oz" wrote in message
...
Jim Webster writes

it certainly looks grim. The sensible thing to do in that sort of area is
for them to diversify out of food production,

That's what they are trying. They have borrowed to buy beads to make
necklaces. The whole thing sounds like a classical pyramid sell and if
it is they will have big debts, a pile of unsaleable necklaces, and
borrowings to boot.

get jobs where their labour
will undercut European wage rates and buy food in.

Unskilled, uneducated and isolated. Hmmm....

Even a part time job that paid enough to let them get a proper diet would
help break the downward spiral.

There are no jobs. There is little infrastructure.

It's (I think) the third poorest country in the world.


yet there is a plant making JD tractor parts (I know because we had a bit
marked tajikistan. I assumed that it was from a retooled soviet era tank
factory.)

But let us look at it rationally.
1) there isn't a lot of point of them trying to do anything agricultural
because even if they get the land right and yields up they are still just
subsistance peasants producing commodity product. I cannot imagine there
being a market for Tajik grain beer or melons.
2) I would suspect that educational level/literacy is pretty good so they
would happily train up to work in pretty well any industry. At the moment
they would doubtless undercut pretty well most other labour pools.
3) With money coming in they have the money behind them to start improving
their land, some will buy or rent more, some will give up the land
altogether because they make enough from their job.
4) It needs some investment at the start of the process and for the first
generation it can be tough, but things improve and you end up with a
prosperous urban society with good medical care and adequate food for
everyone. It's called the industrial revolution and worked for us.
Jim Webster

Jim Webster writes

But let us look at it rationally.
1) there isn't a lot of point of them trying to do anything agricultural
because even if they get the land right and yields up they are still just
subsistance peasants producing commodity product. I cannot imagine there
being a market for Tajik grain beer or melons.

It's cotton. Takes all the essential irrigation water, trashes the
environment. Ex-soviet megafarms, apparently.

2) I would suspect that educational level/literacy is pretty good

I don't know, but I suspect not.

so they
would happily train up to work in pretty well any industry. At the moment
they would doubtless undercut pretty well most other labour pools.

No, because it's a full time job getting water, firewood and basic
foods.

3) With money coming in they have the money behind them to start improving
their land, some will buy or rent more, some will give up the land
altogether because they make enough from their job.

I think they are currently several stages earlier than this.

4) It needs some investment at the start of the process and for the first
generation it can be tough, but things improve and you end up with a
prosperous urban society with good medical care and adequate food for
everyone. It's called the industrial revolution and worked for us.

Trouble is you are competing with china.
Which has vastly superior infrastructure and is apparently stable
politically.

--
Oz
This post is worth absolutely nothing and is probably fallacious.
Note: soon (maybe already) only posts via despammed.com will be accepted.

"Oz" wrote in message
...
Jim Webster writes

But let us look at it rationally.
1) there isn't a lot of point of them trying to do anything agricultural
because even if they get the land right and yields up they are still just
subsistance peasants producing commodity product. I cannot imagine there
being a market for Tajik grain beer or melons.

It's cotton. Takes all the essential irrigation water, trashes the
environment. Ex-soviet megafarms, apparently.


I've seen the Aral sea from the air:-((

2) I would suspect that educational level/literacy is pretty good

I don't know, but I suspect not.

I have been to Uzebeckistan when it was still soviet and they had pretty
good levels of education, but I don't know whether this was general


so they
would happily train up to work in pretty well any industry. At the moment
they would doubtless undercut pretty well most other labour pools.

No, because it's a full time job getting water, firewood and basic
foods.

That is what you have to break away from. The grinding poverty which doesn't
actually give you time to get away from your grinding poverty

Jim Webster

"Jim Webster" wrote in message
...

"Oz" wrote in message
...
Jim Webster writes

But let us look at it rationally.
1) there isn't a lot of point of them trying to do anything
agricultural
because even if they get the land right and yields up they are still
just
subsistance peasants producing commodity product. I cannot imagine
there
being a market for Tajik grain beer or melons.

It's cotton. Takes all the essential irrigation water, trashes the
environment. Ex-soviet megafarms, apparently.


I've seen the Aral sea from the air:-((

2) I would suspect that educational level/literacy is pretty good

I don't know, but I suspect not.

I have been to Uzebeckistan when it was still soviet and they had pretty
good levels of education, but I don't know whether this was general


so they
would happily train up to work in pretty well any industry. At the
moment
they would doubtless undercut pretty well most other labour pools.

No, because it's a full time job getting water, firewood and basic
foods.

That is what you have to break away from. The grinding poverty which
doesn't
actually give you time to get away from your grinding poverty

I have a friend whose husband works in Siberia for Halliburton. He has 3
secretaries that top one get $300 a month. They are pretty, intelligent and
very hard worker putting in more hour that they are paid. Because there are
a thousand more just a pretty, just as smart that will work just as hard
wanting the job. After Africa Siberia is the promised land.

Gordon

"Jim Webster" wrote in message
...

"Oz" wrote in message
...
Jim Webster writes

it certainly looks grim. The sensible thing to do in that sort of area
is
for them to diversify out of food production,

That's what they are trying. They have borrowed to buy beads to make
necklaces. The whole thing sounds like a classical pyramid sell and if
it is they will have big debts, a pile of unsaleable necklaces, and
borrowings to boot.

get jobs where their labour
will undercut European wage rates and buy food in.

Unskilled, uneducated and isolated. Hmmm....

Even a part time job that paid enough to let them get a proper diet
would
help break the downward spiral.

There are no jobs. There is little infrastructure.

It's (I think) the third poorest country in the world.


yet there is a plant making JD tractor parts (I know because we had a bit
marked tajikistan. I assumed that it was from a retooled soviet era tank
factory.)

But let us look at it rationally.
1) there isn't a lot of point of them trying to do anything agricultural
because even if they get the land right and yields up they are still just
subsistance peasants producing commodity product. I cannot imagine there
being a market for Tajik grain beer or melons.
2) I would suspect that educational level/literacy is pretty good so they
would happily train up to work in pretty well any industry. At the moment
they would doubtless undercut pretty well most other labour pools.
3) With money coming in they have the money behind them to start
improving
their land, some will buy or rent more, some will give up the land
altogether because they make enough from their job.
4) It needs some investment at the start of the process and for the first
generation it can be tough, but things improve and you end up with a
prosperous urban society with good medical care and adequate food for
everyone. It's called the industrial revolution and worked for us.
Jim Webster

And that's just considering the issues for one family, in one poor country.
Roughly half the global population live this way, some have it worse. It's
actually far more normal to live as they do than as we do. It's been
normal through all recorded history for most people to live that way. We're
the freaks.

Michael Saunby

"Michael Saunby" wrote in message
...
And that's just considering the issues for one family, in one poor
country.
Roughly half the global population live this way, some have it worse.
It's
actually far more normal to live as they do than as we do. It's been
normal through all recorded history for most people to live that way.
We're
the freaks.

Michael Saunby

too true, but eventually someone will invest there, and export jobs from
here to there, so one wonders who will be the freaks then

Ironically, one thing we can do in this country that cannot be done in a lot
of places is to produce food. Not as cheap as in some places, but more
reliably than in most places.

Jim Webster

Vietnam is the same but cheaper . The Vietnamese manager of an expat
restaurant is on US$160 /month which is well paid against his peers let
alone those who work manually for a living .
500ml bottle of tiger beer 30p
street corner keg beer 5p/glass
bowl of noodles on street 5p
vietnam fags 30p
4 kebabs stuffed in large roll 25p

John Sunckell
Dairying Downunder

I have a friend whose husband works in Siberia for Halliburton. He has 3
secretaries that top one get $300 a month. They are pretty, intelligent
and
very hard worker putting in more hour that they are paid. Because there
are
a thousand more just a pretty, just as smart that will work just as hard
wanting the job. After Africa Siberia is the promised land.

Gordon

"Jim Webster" wrote in message
...

"Michael Saunby" wrote in message
...
And that's just considering the issues for one family, in one poor
country.
Roughly half the global population live this way, some have it worse.
It's
actually far more normal to live as they do than as we do. It's been
normal through all recorded history for most people to live that way.
We're
the freaks.

Michael Saunby

too true, but eventually someone will invest there, and export jobs from
here to there, so one wonders who will be the freaks then

Ironically, one thing we can do in this country that cannot be done in a
lot
of places is to produce food. Not as cheap as in some places, but more
reliably than in most places.


In absolute global terms it might not be cheap, but compared with other UK
"industries", e.g. insurance, banking, IT, hairdressing, vehicle servicing,
house building, etc, agriculture is very efficient and very cheap. It's
not the low price of imports that keeps UK food prices low, it's the 70% or
so of food that we produce for ourselves using the absolute minimum of
over-priced, under-productive UK labour.

Michael Saunby

Jim Webster writes

I have been to Uzebeckistan when it was still soviet and they had pretty
good levels of education, but I don't know whether this was general

Rural areas may not be so well served.

It's still very muslim indeed (not to mention superstitious).

--
Oz
This post is worth absolutely nothing and is probably fallacious.
Note: soon (maybe already) only posts via despammed.com will be accepted.

On Friday, in article
"Jim Webster" wrote:

"Oz" wrote in message
...
Jim Webster writes

But let us look at it rationally.
1) there isn't a lot of point of them trying to do anything agricultural
because even if they get the land right and yields up they are still just
subsistance peasants producing commodity product. I cannot imagine there
being a market for Tajik grain beer or melons.

It's cotton. Takes all the essential irrigation water, trashes the
environment. Ex-soviet megafarms, apparently.


I've seen the Aral sea from the air:-((

I'm surprised it's still visible.


That is what you have to break away from. The grinding poverty which doesn't
actually give you time to get away from your grinding poverty

This was the weakness of the CAP. For generally good reasons, it tried
to keep people in farming. When those reasons went away, the EU
politicians couldn't break the habit, and the whole mess of the MTR
comes from politicians being scared that people don't want to farm.


--
David G. Bell -- SF Fan, Filker, and Punslinger.

"History shows that the Singularity started when Tim Berners-Lee
was bitten by a radioactive spider."

"sw" wrote in message
...
Gordon Couger wrote:

"Jim Webster" wrote in message
...

"sw" wrote in message
...
Oz wrote:

The hard thing to realise is they are in a catch twenty-two
situation. They only have just enough to live on now. But
what about next year and the one after that and the one
after that - when their wheat yields fall even more, when
they have to go 15km instead of 10 every day for wood, when
the old apple trees give up the ghost and havenâ?Tt been
replaced.

Sustainable????

Clearly not.

it certainly looks grim. The sensible thing to do in that sort of
area is
for them to diversify out of food production, get jobs where their
labour
will undercut European wage rates and buy food in.
Even a part time job that paid enough to let them get a proper diet
would
help break the downward spiral.

Leaving his family behind or starving in slums near the city. Being
poor in
a rural setting is bad it is worse in an urban one.


Yes. Ideally an aid agency would arrive with information and funding for
local schemes promoting alternative cropping strategies, low-tech water
retention, primary health care and education. Then at least the people
have a chance of producing sufficient food to feed themselves and their
children, and start to reduce the birth rate, which eventually means
they all have a better chance of finding the time and energy to invent
other projects earning money from outside the area. If someone flies in
and dumps a factory on them it might provide an opportunity to earn
cash, but it'll almost certainly be a starvation wage with no hope of
anything better.


Ah, you mean give them some power. There's a reason why this rarely
happens.

Michael Saunby