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UK vCJD October 2002
Updated statistics of vCJD in UK (will soon be)
available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/nov02.htm until they are, you may wish to use the press release at http://www.info.doh.gov.uk/doh/intpr...6?OpenDocument Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 117 -- 117 (no change) Total cases (dead or alive) 128 -- 128 (no change) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 102 - 117 (+15) Total cases (dead or alive) 111 - 128 (+17) On Tue, 08 Oct 2002 18:05:55 +0200, Torsten Brinch wrote: Updated statistics of vCJD in UK available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/oct02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 115 -- 117 (+2) Total cases (dead or alive) 127 -- 128 (+1) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 101 - 117 (+16) Total cases (dead or alive) 107 - 128 (+21) On Mon, 02 Sep 2002 21:04:13 +0200, Torsten Brinch wrote: Updated statistics of vCJD in UK available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/sep02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 115 -- 115 (no change) Total cases (dead or alive) 125 -- 127 (+2) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 101 - 115 (+14) Total cases (dead or alive) 106 - 127 (+21) On Mon, 05 Aug 2002 14:33:09 +0200, Torsten Brinch wrote: Updated statistics of vCJD in UK available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/aug02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 115 -- 115 (no change) Total cases (dead or alive) 124 -- 125 (+1) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 99 - 115 (+16) Total cases (dead or alive) 106 - 125 (+19) On Mon, 01 Jul 2002 17:54:27 +0200, Torsten Brinch wrote: Updated statistics of vCJD in UK available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/jul02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 113 -- 115 (+2) Total cases (dead or alive) 122 -- 124 (+2) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 96 - 115 (+19) Total cases (dead or alive) 102 - 124 (+22) ..http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/jun02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 111 -- 113 (+2) Total cases (dead or alive) 121 -- 122 (+1) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 94 - 113 (+19) Total cases (dead or alive) 101 - 122 (+21) .. http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/may02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 110 -- 111 (+1) Total cases (dead or alive) 117 -- 121 (+4) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 93 - 111 (+18) Total cases (dead or alive) 99 - 121 (+22) |
#2
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UK vCJD October 2002
Torsten,
Has a trend devolved yet that would indicate that a peak is nearing if there are no suppresses such as a genotype that has a lot longer resistance to the disease and is sitting out there waiting to start to show up. Or is it still just trending to the low side of estimates. I realize with such a sparse data set random chance can play hell with the results. I have seen a crap shooter make 8 passes in a row. The extremes of probability do occur. -- Gordon Gordon Couger Stillwater, OK www.couger.com/gcouger "Torsten Brinch" wrote in message ... Updated statistics of vCJD in UK (will soon be) available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/nov02.htm until they are, you may wish to use the press release at http://www.info.doh.gov.uk/doh/intpr...6?OpenDocument Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 117 -- 117 (no change) Total cases (dead or alive) 128 -- 128 (no change) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 102 - 117 (+15) Total cases (dead or alive) 111 - 128 (+17) On Tue, 08 Oct 2002 18:05:55 +0200, Torsten Brinch wrote: Updated statistics of vCJD in UK available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/oct02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 115 -- 117 (+2) Total cases (dead or alive) 127 -- 128 (+1) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 101 - 117 (+16) Total cases (dead or alive) 107 - 128 (+21) On Mon, 02 Sep 2002 21:04:13 +0200, Torsten Brinch wrote: Updated statistics of vCJD in UK available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/sep02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 115 -- 115 (no change) Total cases (dead or alive) 125 -- 127 (+2) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 101 - 115 (+14) Total cases (dead or alive) 106 - 127 (+21) On Mon, 05 Aug 2002 14:33:09 +0200, Torsten Brinch wrote: Updated statistics of vCJD in UK available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/aug02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 115 -- 115 (no change) Total cases (dead or alive) 124 -- 125 (+1) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 99 - 115 (+16) Total cases (dead or alive) 106 - 125 (+19) On Mon, 01 Jul 2002 17:54:27 +0200, Torsten Brinch wrote: Updated statistics of vCJD in UK available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/jul02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 113 -- 115 (+2) Total cases (dead or alive) 122 -- 124 (+2) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 96 - 115 (+19) Total cases (dead or alive) 102 - 124 (+22) ..http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/jun02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 111 -- 113 (+2) Total cases (dead or alive) 121 -- 122 (+1) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 94 - 113 (+19) Total cases (dead or alive) 101 - 122 (+21) .. http://www.doh.gov.uk/cjd/stats/may02.htm Changes from previous month to this month in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 110 -- 111 (+1) Total cases (dead or alive) 117 -- 121 (+4) Changes from previous year same month to this month this year in definite or probable vCJD Total deaths 93 - 111 (+18) Total cases (dead or alive) 99 - 121 (+22) |
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UK vCJD October 2002
On Thu, 7 Nov 2002 03:48:45 -0600, "Gordon Couger"
wrote: Torsten, Has a trend devolved yet that would indicate that a peak is nearing .. You are making reference to some thought imagine of a 'normal' epidemic curve, I think, more or less bell-shaped with a tail. I don't think our knowledge of the disease gives us basis for assuming such a model. Anyhow, if it is assumed, there is no clear indication in data where we are in this assumed progressive development in relation to a peak. Said otherwise, one can find support in data for us being as well past, on, or nearing a peak. Past-peakers might note the decreasing trend in vCJD deaths since about autumn 2000; on-peakers and nearing-peakers, that the current incidence does not stand out as particularly high or particularly low compared to the incidence the previous 3-4 years. |
#4
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UK vCJD October 2002
"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message ... On Thu, 7 Nov 2002 03:48:45 -0600, "Gordon Couger" wrote: Torsten, Has a trend devolved yet that would indicate that a peak is nearing .. You are making reference to some thought imagine of a 'normal' epidemic curve, I think, more or less bell-shaped with a tail. I don't think our knowledge of the disease gives us basis for assuming such a model. Anyhow, if it is assumed, there is no clear indication in data where we are in this assumed progressive development in relation to a peak. Said otherwise, one can find support in data for us being as well past, on, or nearing a peak. Past-peakers might note the decreasing trend in vCJD deaths since about autumn 2000; on-peakers and nearing-peakers, that the current incidence does not stand out as particularly high or particularly low compared to the incidence the previous 3-4 years. It wouldn't be bell shaped. I am exactly sure what the curve of an emerging diseases looks like it would be different for each one, but the fear was that it would be like growth curve of bacteria with a slow early phase and very rapid log phase. Other diseases have shown this kind of explosive out break. So the early predictions have a very wide range of out comes and of course the press picked up on the one that sold the most papers. Fortunately humans appear to poor hosts for vCJD. It face cattle don't appear to be very good hosts for it either. Flat curves are good for vCJD declining would be better. -- Gordon Couger Stillwater, OK www.couger.com/gcouger |
#5
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UK vCJD October 2002
On Thu, 7 Nov 2002 16:38:18 -0600, "Gordon Couger"
wrote: "Torsten Brinch" wrote in message .. . On Thu, 7 Nov 2002 03:48:45 -0600, "Gordon Couger" wrote: Torsten, Has a trend devolved yet that would indicate that a peak is nearing .. You are making reference to some thought imagine of a 'normal' epidemic curve, I think, more or less bell-shaped with a tail. I don't think our knowledge of the disease gives us basis for assuming such a model. Anyhow, if it is assumed, there is no clear indication in data where we are in this assumed progressive development in relation to a peak. Said otherwise, one can find support in data for us being as well past, on, or nearing a peak. Past-peakers might note the decreasing trend in vCJD deaths since about autumn 2000; on-peakers and nearing-peakers, that the current incidence does not stand out as particularly high or particularly low compared to the incidence the previous 3-4 years. It wouldn't be bell shaped. I am exactly sure what the curve of an emerging diseases looks like it would be different for each one snip Yes,exactly and the shape is not known a priori unless one has a reasoned model -- which in this case we most certainly do not have. As you probably know, some think it is caused by the chronic effect of exposure to toxic proteins from BSE affected cows. Quite a bit like that Minamata disease in Japan caused by exposure to methylmercury, just slower. But that can't be right, since the US EPA has determined in connection with their approvals of genetically modified crops, that when proteins are toxic they act by acute toxicity mechanisms and in very small doses. If there were to be toxic protein in the brains of BSE cows, there should be at least sproadic reports of acute cases of dementia in humans caused by the sunday dinner, and there should be huge masses of supporting animal evidence for the acute toxic effects of BSE brain muck. But quite on the contrary, there is a vast body of evidence proving beyond any doubt, that experimental animals tolerate large acute doses of BSE muck with no ill effect. IOW, we do not have a clue what vCJD is caused by, and to be worse very many people think it is caused by something that the EPA has determined that it cannot be caused by. |
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UK vCJD October 2002
Gordon Couger writes
It wouldn't be bell shaped. I am exactly sure what the curve of an emerging diseases looks like it would be different for each one, but the fear was that it would be like growth curve of bacteria with a slow early phase and very rapid log phase. That's a pretty good description of what happened in cattle if you take birth date and adjust for seasonality, up until the first MBM ban. Of course it would have been bell shaped simply because there would have been few if any unaffected cattle without the ban. Other diseases have shown this kind of explosive out break. So the early predictions have a very wide range of out comes and of course the press picked up on the one that sold the most papers. The fact that it resulted in substantial grants to the researchers had nothing to do with the stories of course. Fortunately humans appear to poor hosts for vCJD. It face cattle don't appear to be very good hosts for it either. So far only about 40% of the UK genotype seems to be susceptible (met- met). Interestingly it's the genotype considered resistant to CJD. If work on scrapie and sheep genetics is followed in humans then we ought to expect little or none in the (not-met)(not-met) group (probably about 30% of the population) and considerably lower incidences in the (met)(not-met) group (about 30%). GM mice with these genotypes did not succumb to exposure to BSE (in the brain). Since we do not know the exposure we do not know how susceptible humans are. Cats, pigs and dogs in the UK had heavy exposure and the incidence is small for cats, zero for dogs and pigs. I would point out that the 'species barrier' is misunderstood by many in that it is typically not a total barrier but represents how hard it is to infect a species with a particular prionic disease. Under extreme enough exposure (like injecting it directly into the brain) most species can be infected by most prionic diseases. We do know for SURE that BSE is hugely less infective to humans than human-strains of CJD. We know that invisibly microscopic traces of CJD on stainless surgical implements can infect many subsequent people and that post mortems on CJD patients carry a high risk of infection to those doing the work. However thousands (probably tens of thousands) of people, from farmers and vets, through abattoir workers, butchers, knackers, renderers and hauliers are known for sure to have been regularly exposed to high levels of known highly infectious material for many years with not a single one of these groups so far succumbing to v- CJD (although sooner of later it will happen). Flat curves are good for vCJD declining would be better. If we can get the data on dates of onset for this year (I'll probably get the question asked in january) then I suspect the evidence will be pretty clear, one way or the other. I have a horrible suspicion it's going to match a flat curve. This would make me increasingly suspicious that v-CJD is a low-incidence human CJD unrelated to BSE. -- Oz This post is worth absolutely nothing and is probably fallacious. Note: soon (maybe already) only posts via despammed.com will be accepted. |
#7
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UK vCJD October 2002
Torsten Brinch writes
Yes,exactly and the shape is not known a priori unless one has a reasoned model -- which in this case we most certainly do not have. We have data from the UK cattle epidemic, which should be a reasonable guide until more information is available (if ever). As you probably know, some think it is caused by the chronic effect of exposure to toxic proteins from BSE affected cows. News to me. Sounds like a torsten fishing expedition. Quite a bit like that Minamata disease in Japan caused by exposure to methylmercury, just slower. But that can't be right, since there isn't a scrap of evidence for it. If there were to be toxic protein in the brains of BSE cows, there should be at least sproadic reports of acute cases of dementia in humans caused by the sunday dinner, Why? Torsten, are you practising your irony again? You haven't quite got it yet. IOW, we do not have a clue what vCJD is caused by, You ought to look up 'prions'. and to be worse very many people think it is caused by something that the EPA has determined that it cannot be caused by. Ahhh. Having lost the 'millions die of vCJD' argument you are now either: 1) Practising irony. Badly. 2) Grasping at straws to 'support' your anti-GM stance. You never learn, do you. -- Oz This post is worth absolutely nothing and is probably fallacious. Note: soon (maybe already) only posts via despammed.com will be accepted. |
#8
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UK vCJD October 2002
"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message ... On Thu, 7 Nov 2002 16:38:18 -0600, "Gordon Couger" wrote: "Torsten Brinch" wrote in message .. . On Thu, 7 Nov 2002 03:48:45 -0600, "Gordon Couger" wrote: Torsten, Has a trend devolved yet that would indicate that a peak is nearing .. You are making reference to some thought imagine of a 'normal' epidemic curve, I think, more or less bell-shaped with a tail. I don't think our knowledge of the disease gives us basis for assuming such a model. Anyhow, if it is assumed, there is no clear indication in data where we are in this assumed progressive development in relation to a peak. Said otherwise, one can find support in data for us being as well past, on, or nearing a peak. Past-peakers might note the decreasing trend in vCJD deaths since about autumn 2000; on-peakers and nearing-peakers, that the current incidence does not stand out as particularly high or particularly low compared to the incidence the previous 3-4 years. It wouldn't be bell shaped. I am exactly sure what the curve of an emerging diseases looks like it would be different for each one snip Yes,exactly and the shape is not known a priori unless one has a reasoned model -- which in this case we most certainly do not have. As you probably know, some think it is caused by the chronic effect of exposure to toxic proteins from BSE affected cows. Quite a bit like that Minamata disease in Japan caused by exposure to methylmercury, just slower. But that can't be right, since the US EPA has determined in connection with their approvals of genetically modified crops, that when proteins are toxic they act by acute toxicity mechanisms and in very small doses. If there were to be toxic protein in the brains of BSE cows, there should be at least sproadic reports of acute cases of dementia in humans caused by the sunday dinner, and there should be huge masses of supporting animal evidence for the acute toxic effects of BSE brain muck. But quite on the contrary, there is a vast body of evidence proving beyond any doubt, that experimental animals tolerate large acute doses of BSE muck with no ill effect. IOW, we do not have a clue what vCJD is caused by, and to be worse very many people think it is caused by something that the EPA has determined that it cannot be caused by. The fantasicly intestisting thing about the TSE diseses is they are an entirely new class of diseases. The incubation peroiod are so slow and the method of transmision counter to what we think we know about he digestion of protiens it will be a long time getting the research done. When you look at the economic return on investment of reserch in TSE's the return is very poor. It is simple not worth the opertunity cost spent on it when there are more important things to spend money on. Had the press not sensationalized it Mad Cow would be a foot note in journals. Getting vCJD appears to be two to 3 times as likely as being killed by lighiningin the UK. I must confess I would prefer lightineing. I can't find the number on cattle killed by ligthing but the Mad Cow numers range from 300,000 to 3,000,000. I the lower number is the ones diagnosed and ones reasonable expected to have died from BSE and I know that the UK has much better reporting than the US but I am sure that in the early part of the out break it was low and probalbly to some extent all throug the out break. How every even if you take the high figure it was not an economicly disatorus disease until the panic took over reducing the UK beef industry to a side line of the dairy business. I have blamed the greens for the fools debate on food safety but my side shares the blame in not coming out a standing up in the harsh public light and standing their ground. We have a 89 year old Noble prize winner we shamed in to reentering the fray funded a few institutes to put out our propaganda based on better science than the other side but still it is plain that their job is to run interference for the scientist that should be standing up and explaining to people why what they do is needed and safe but most still hide in their holes (offices) afraid controversy will hurt their funding. They need the balls to come out and tell their side of the story and get pie in the face and earn the respect of the people because a few voice in the wilderness will not over come the well oiled green machine. No government is funding ag or another kind or research at the same rate they were 20 years ago. So it is either commercial or very damn little when it comes to research. A lot of the US research in the USDA and USGS is being done by retired civil servants that have invested their lives in those projects and when no one was there to take them up they just kept on working with out pay. People don't go into science for money if they have all their marbles. A few make it big but my son's starting salary fresh out of college was higher than some full professors salary that taught him. Torsten, we have been at this discussion a very long time. What I want for the future is not much different than what you want. I want a world that is capable of feeding it's self with each country being self sustaining as possible using methods that at worst leave the ground as good as it was when they pass it on to the next generation as it was when they got it. I want a world that as people are needed in other areas of the economy they can be freed from the back breaking labor of hand farming. I don't want to preserve our soils I want to improve them. I see the only successful future of the world as one where education, health care, and opportunity are available to all. Feeding them is number one on the list and health is number two. They have to be met before you can educate anyone. I expect that health care will be the easiest in the coming century. Food next and education impossible in large parts of the world. In the years I farmed I tried to do that. I was not as succubus as I would have like to have been But out of over 10,000 acres I worked at one time or another on 20 acres is worse than when I took it on. A heavy rainfall event caught it in cotton that I had not had time to put to wheat because I got it too late in the year. I should have planted to a close rooted summer crop but the land lord wanted another year of cotton. I could of probably changed his mined if I had tried harder. I maintained the terraces and flood control structures and added some of my own and planted a good many spots that washed to grass it only cost an acre or two usualy and stopped a lot of problems. I left them every one with better more balanced fertility than when I got them. We are still working to put in the best practices on the land we own. Spending nearly twice what a center pivot would cost to put in drip partly because it pays better but it also uses less water a very precious commodity in west Texas and by using drip we could use the shallow local recharge aquiver that has only dropped 1 foot in 50 years and drilling 6 wells instead drilling one well thorough to the Olagalla fossil water that would probably have given us all the water we needed all our lives but it is dropping a foot a year. Had I don't that the government would have let me deduct the decrease in value of my land from the falling water table. This way they don't But this way my son and his kids will still have water. I am looking a doing something similar on my dad's place. The circumstances are different and the whole thing hinges on the water quality. If it is good enough for use forever we go if not we don't use. I spent 5 years working on spray technology to reduce the amount of fertilzer and herbicide by half with out reducing their effect. In my 45 year of hands on work with agriculture I am convinced that technology has steadily improved yields and reduced the impact of farming on the environment. In the years after the war we got carried away with pesticides and over did them but we are using every resource at our disposal to do more with less. In my life grain yields have doubled and we need to do it again before I die if I live as long as many in my family. I am satisfied that the best affronts of science are the only way we have a chance to improve the output of agriculture. If you have a way to meet the needs of the coming century with out the every effort of science I would be interested in hearing how we double the world out put of food and do it where it is needed and not have situation like Africa where food is being with held from starving people over some lame excuse or another. If it wasn't GM it would be something. This is not the first problem like this nor will it be the last. The only sure way to feed a man is to give him a plant he can raise in his back yard. Preferable a native one that deals with the climate. Corn is not a drought or heat tolerant plant. I know you are a protester at heart and protests shine the light of day on situation that need correction but they aren't the way to correct them. That's the job for people like me that fully understand the ramification or a least have some idea what to look for when you change a faming system. Best regards Gordon |
#9
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UK vCJD October 2002
On Fri, 8 Nov 2002 02:54:29 -0600, "Gordon Couger"
wrote: "Torsten Brinch" wrote in message .. . If there were to be toxic protein in the brains of BSE cows, there should be at least sproadic reports of acute cases of dementia in humans caused by the sunday dinner, and there should be huge masses of supporting animal evidence for the acute toxic effects of BSE brain muck. But quite on the contrary, there is a vast body of evidence proving beyond any doubt, that experimental animals tolerate large acute doses of BSE muck with no ill effect. IOW, we do not have a clue what vCJD is caused by, and to be worse very many people think it is caused by something that the EPA has determined that it cannot be caused by. The fantasicly intestisting thing about the TSE diseses is they are an entirely new class of diseases. The incubation peroiod are so slow and the method of transmision counter to what we think we know about he digestion of protiens it will be a long time getting the research done. Again, compare with the time delayed effect of methyl mercury. We would not say that a person who has just ingested a dose of methyl mercury which will in time make him go down with neurological disease, has had a disease transmitted to him, nor would we say that the time passing until his symptoms appear is an incubation time. We would say that he has been exposed to a toxic dose of methylmercury, sufficient to cause chronic effects. When you look at the economic return on investment of reserch in TSE's the return is very poor. It is simple not worth the opertunity cost spent on it when there are more important things to spend money on. Well, in practice it apparently has been worth a Nobel prize, and a whole lot of research besides, and the knowledge gathered so far has made pretty much everyone adopt the view that proteins may well exist which act by chronic toxicity mechanism while causing effects which can not be provoked by short term feeding experiments using large doses. The US EPA, in the context of GM approvals, is a notable exception. In that context the EPA has determined, that it is 'known' that when proteins are toxic they act invariably by acute mechanism and in very small doses. That is quite expedient, because that means one can just feed large doses of the protein to the calf for a few days to prove that no ill effect can come from the ingestion of the protein in the feed in the long term. Getting vCJD appears to be two to 3 times as likely as being killed by lighiningin the UK. I must confess I would prefer lightineing. That's an idiotic comparison, don't try to get a job in risk communication. I can't find the number on cattle killed by ligthing Oh well. Putting up that number here would be idiotic and it's hard to see how you can find use for on this avenue anyway. but the Mad Cow numers range from 300,000 to 3,000,000. I the lower number is the ones diagnosed and ones reasonable expected to have died from BSE and I know that the UK has much better reporting than the US but I am sure that in the early part of the out break it was low and probalbly to some extent all throug the out break.How every even if you take the high figure it was not an economicly disatorus disease considerably more disastrous than lightning, tho' :-) snip load of completely unrelated stuff |
#10
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UK vCJD October 2002
"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message ... On Fri, 8 Nov 2002 02:54:29 -0600, "Gordon Couger" wrote: "Torsten Brinch" wrote in message .. . If there were to be toxic protein in the brains of BSE cows, there should be at least sproadic reports of acute cases of dementia in humans caused by the sunday dinner, and there should be huge masses of supporting animal evidence for the acute toxic effects of BSE brain muck. But quite on the contrary, there is a vast body of evidence proving beyond any doubt, that experimental animals tolerate large acute doses of BSE muck with no ill effect. IOW, we do not have a clue what vCJD is caused by, and to be worse very many people think it is caused by something that the EPA has determined that it cannot be caused by. The fantasicly intestisting thing about the TSE diseses is they are an entirely new class of diseases. The incubation peroiod are so slow and the method of transmision counter to what we think we know about he digestion of protiens it will be a long time getting the research done. Again, compare with the time delayed effect of methyl mercury. We would not say that a person who has just ingested a dose of methyl mercury which will in time make him go down with neurological disease, has had a disease transmitted to him, nor would we say that the time passing until his symptoms appear is an incubation time. We would say that he has been exposed to a toxic dose of methylmercury, sufficient to cause chronic effects. -------------------------------- It would be facinting to find out how and why man contacts vCJD with so few pateints I expect a guess will be best they can do with spieces that catch TSE diseases not developed in their species. Probably our best bet scrapie or CWD. If I were to guess and it is a guess only if come from sniffing another animal wiht and getting the protien on the nerve endings of the nerves that do the smelling. The ony reason for the guess is it is the shortest path to the brain. It may well be licking and a oral route. When you look at the economic return on investment of reserch in TSE's the return is very poor. It is simple not worth the opertunity cost spent on it when there are more important things to spend money on. Well, in practice it apparently has been worth a Nobel prize, and a whole lot of research besides, and the knowledge gathered so far has made pretty much everyone adopt the view that proteins may well exist which act by chronic toxicity mechanism while causing effects which can not be provoked by short term feeding experiments using large doses. ================== Discovering a completly new mode of disease tramission is the stuff Nobe prizes are made their econimic revalace is not a consideration. The US EPA, in the context of GM approvals, is a notable exception. In that context the EPA has determined, that it is 'known' that when proteins are toxic they act invariably by acute mechanism and in very small doses. That is quite expedient, because that means one can just feed large doses of the protein to the calf for a few days to prove that no ill effect can come from the ingestion of the protein in the feed in the long term. =========== Prions are not toxic in the usual sense that cause the body to make more of them clogging up the works. The EPA head has been replaced wih a science guy insted of a political guy I expect things will start to get streightined out there. Getting vCJD appears to be two to 3 times as likely as being killed by lighiningin the UK. I must confess I would prefer lightineing. That's an idiotic comparison, don't try to get a job in risk communication. Give a better example of you chancge of getting vCJD. I can't find the number on cattle killed by ligthing Oh well. Putting up that number here would be idiotic and it's hard to see how you can find use for on this avenue anyway. but the Mad Cow numers range from 300,000 to 3,000,000. I the lower number is the ones diagnosed and ones reasonable expected to have died from BSE and I know that the UK has much better reporting than the US but I am sure that in the early part of the out break it was low and probalbly to some extent all throug the out break.How every even if you take the high figure it was not an economicly disatorus disease considerably more disastrous than lightning, tho' :-) Regardless the only thing that mad a economic problem of Mad Cow Disease is caused by the press and the governments bungling. Higher risks like Ecoli:157, listeria, salmonella, that we have real solutions for we are not interested enough to get around to irradiating the food after it is packaged. In fact the greens are against it. Again with no proof against 50 year of proof that it has caused no harm. We also have the solution to BSE don't feed cows MBM. Gordon |
#11
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UK vCJD October 2002
On Fri, 8 Nov 2002 12:26:14 -0600, "Gordon Couger"
wrote: "Torsten Brinch" wrote in message .. . Again, compare with the time delayed effect of methyl mercury. We would not say that a person who has just ingested a dose of methyl mercury which will in time make him go down with neurological disease, has had a disease transmitted to him, nor would we say that the time passing until his symptoms appear is an incubation time. We would say that he has been exposed to a toxic dose of methylmercury, sufficient to cause chronic effects. -------------------------------- It would be facinting to find out how and why man contacts vCJD with so few pateints I expect a guess will be best they can do with spieces that catch TSE diseases not developed in their species. With the number of species involved in the sudden UK upsurge of TSE in the last few decades of the 20th century and in all sorts of species the simplest hypothesis is that they all got it from the same source directly and/or via consumption of meat or dairy products. Probably our best bet scrapie or CWD. If I were to guess and it is a guess only if come from sniffing another animal wiht and getting the protien on the nerve endings of the nerves that do the smelling. The ony reason for the guess is it is the shortest path to the brain. It may well be licking and a oral route. Yes. Come to think of it, kissing as a risk actor for these relatively young people dying of vCJD is territory relatively uncharted by science, afaik. .. The US EPA, in the context of GM approvals, is a notable exception. In that context the EPA has determined, that it is 'known' that when proteins are toxic they act invariably by acute mechanism and in very small doses. That is quite expedient, because that means one can just feed large doses of the protein to the calf for a few days to prove that no ill effect can come from the ingestion of the protein in the feed in the long term. =========== Prions are not toxic in the usual sense What do you mean not toxic in the usual sense. We say that a substance is toxic when it through its chemical action kills, injures, or impairs an organism, and that is exactly what this prion-substance seems to be doing. that cause the body to make more of them clogging up the works. Well, we are not sure if -that- is what they are doing, but even if it was, so what. It is not disallowed for a toxic substance to work in its own peculiar ways. |
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UK vCJD October 2002
"Torsten Brinch" wrote in message ... On Fri, 8 Nov 2002 12:26:14 -0600, "Gordon Couger" wrote: "Torsten Brinch" wrote in message .. . Again, compare with the time delayed effect of methyl mercury. We would not say that a person who has just ingested a dose of methyl mercury which will in time make him go down with neurological disease, has had a disease transmitted to him, nor would we say that the time passing until his symptoms appear is an incubation time. We would say that he has been exposed to a toxic dose of methylmercury, sufficient to cause chronic effects. -------------------------------- It would be facinting to find out how and why man contacts vCJD with so few pateints I expect a guess will be best they can do with spieces that catch TSE diseases not developed in their species. With the number of species involved in the sudden UK upsurge of TSE in the last few decades of the 20th century and in all sorts of species the simplest hypothesis is that they all got it from the same source directly and/or via consumption of meat or dairy products. ===============\ The upsurge in TSE is usualy connected with feeding meat from the same spices. I believe mink were the first well stuided case in the 50's or so. In the UK an EU with your high population density forcing nearly anything larger than a sparrow to go to the renering pland and manageries of many kinds of animals scattered over the country coupled with the a shortage of vegtable protien there is not telling what got chopped up and fed to what. Giving every TSE a chance at nearly every animal in the country by the oral route. Probably our best bet scrapie or CWD. If I were to guess and it is a guess only if come from sniffing another animal wiht and getting the protien on the nerve endings of the nerves that do the smelling. The ony reason for the guess is it is the shortest path to the brain. It may well be licking and a oral route. Yes. Come to think of it, kissing as a risk actor for these relatively young people dying of vCJD is territory relatively uncharted by science, afaik. .. The US EPA, in the context of GM approvals, is a notable exception. In that context the EPA has determined, that it is 'known' that when proteins are toxic they act invariably by acute mechanism and in very small doses. That is quite expedient, because that means one can just feed large doses of the protein to the calf for a few days to prove that no ill effect can come from the ingestion of the protein in the feed in the long term. =========== Prions are not toxic in the usual sense What do you mean not toxic in the usual sense. We say that a substance is toxic when it through its chemical action kills, injures, or impairs an organism, and that is exactly what this prion-substance seems to be doing. ============ I will thing more on toxic in the usasl senses. It appers that only certian geontype are suscptable to them. There are not known to be dose dependent and spoke of as a disease not a posining. Of course with a new disease we might as well usign gerogre, soe and thumb tack as terms. Using familure terms could lead to mistakes. In the case of cronic wasting disease if 20 to 30% the deer were resistant to CWD it would get us back to decent dear herds. that cause the body to make more of them clogging up the works. Well, we are not sure if -that- is what they are doing, but even if it was, so what. It is not disallowed for a toxic substance to work in its own peculiar ways. There is prion that grows in yeasts. I haven't looked into it much. It seem to be more tractable in its culture. I thnke they are class 1 bugs you can grow them any place but your kitchen. -- Gordon Gordon Couger Stillwater, OK www.couger.com/gcouger Gordon |
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UK vCJD December 2002 | sci.agriculture |